Saturday, January 28, 2006


> On 1/27/06, H wrote:
> > What are we thinking about this Hamas victory?
> > On 1/27/06, M wrote:
> > > is that the royal we?
> > > On 1/28/06, H wrote:
> > > > That's you, ms. expert.
> > > > On 1/29/06, M wrote:
M to H

ms. expert thinks everyone is getting their knickers in a knot over
absolutely nothing.

shes also a little tipsy, so a full, clear, and comprehensive
explanation is not to follow. but a few points, if she may:

-hamas has been around a long time, and the circumstances under which
it was organized are no longer the circumstances under which it exists
today, and while the organizing principles have not changed in their
presentation, they have changed in practice

-the age and size of hamas means there is a highly factionalized
leadership, representing a variety of issue-based constituencies,
supporting diverse issues with varying degrees of adherence to the
different founding principles - ie, -the destruction of israel -an
islamic state -integrity in government, etc.

-many midlevel members of hamas chose it as an alternative to the
hegemonic rule of arafat, as the only viable alternative to the
existing government, rather than any specific fealty to the founding

-hamas has become increasingly politicized since the 1995
parliamentary elections, a process which expedited itself
exponentially since the death of arafat, and in the process, the
organization has alienated some hardline members while introducing
political concepts previously unknown to organizers

-there is a lack of a coherently articulated agenda, which will
detract from any hardline stance against israel for the time being

-there is no money to support further attacks

-the previous government offered much and delivered little, a failure
hamas capitalized on during campaigning, promising great changes and
the redressing of various grievances. palestinians will look for these
promises to be fulfilled, and if the ongoing struggle against israel
takes precedence, there will be a withdrawal of popular support

-the palestinians are unlikely to support an escalation of hostilities
towards israel, and israel is unlikely to show any great tolerance
towards the palestinians, if anything, they will be more trigger happy
now, as the loss of sharon has rendered the great machine of israeli
politics inoperable, and there is an unusual admission of
vulnerability within the israeli national identity. any challenges
will likely be met with thorough retaliation.

-other arab governments will not support any overt attempts by hamas
as a ruling party to undermine the state of israel, and back channel
money and cooperation will quickly be withdrawn

-institutionalising the resistance has a funny way of undermining the
resistance. status quo and all that jazz.

I'm kinda tipsy, so this was probably a bad list... but that's my
take, after a few mojitos.
- Hide quoted text -


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